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Take Itsmyluckyday in Florida Derby, Departing in Louisiana Derby

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/29/2013 6:06:21 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Shanghai Bobby, Itsmyluckyday, Frac Daddy, Orb, Revolutionary, Sunbean, Departing, Code West
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Florida Derby, The Louisiana Derby
Where: Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds
When: Saturday, March 30th

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby will renew acquaintances Saturday in The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. The pair finished one-two in The Holy Bull with last year’s two-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby suffering his first career defeat off the layoff. They’ll be joined by the improving Orb, winner of The Fountain of Youth last out. The Todd Pletcher-trained Revolutionary heads a cast of 14 in Saturday’s 100th Running of The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. He’ll have to avoid traffic trouble as well as a stiff challenge from unbeaten Departing to prevail. Let’s take a closer look at these major Kentucky Derby prep races below.

We’ll probably find out Saturday if #1-Shanghai Bobby (5-2) was just a nice early developer or a legitimate threat for the three-year-old classics. I still believe he’ll develop into a very good middle-distance horse, but question his ability to go long. Perhaps the Met Mile will end up on his agenda. #6-Orb (3-1) benefitted from a suicidal pace scenario (:45 2/5, 1:08 4/5) in the Fountain of Youth, and he’ll be picking up six pounds for this contest. He’s won three straight, and should make some noise in the stretch. I’m sticking with #3-Itsmyluckyday (2-1), who I loved in The Holy Bull at odds of 4.70-1. He’s got an excellent foundation, loves the Gulfstream strip, and has been training superbly at his Calder base, even putting in one of the classic “Plesa Mile” works earlier this month. I’ll bet on Itsmyluckyday to win at odds of 3-2 or better, and use him over improving longshot #5-Frac Daddy (20-1) in the exacta.

#3-Revolutionary (3-1) demonstrated his class last out when he overcame traffic, then split horses to win The Withers at Aqueduct. He also possesses the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure (102), which he earned two back when breaking his maiden in his first two-turn try, also at the Big A. That said, I’m going to try to beat him in The Louisiana Derby with the unbeaten #7-Departing (8-1). He was scratched out of The Risen Star, along with stablemate #6-Sunbean (12-1), as both drew extreme outside posts for that race. That paid dividends for trainer Al Stall and his connections, as both horses won the races they eventually wound up in. Departing has a beautiful way of going, and appears to be a push-button sort, blowing by his competition when called upon by regular rider Brian Hernandez. That local bullet breeze in :47 1/5 last Sunday was the fastest of 65 at the distance, signaling Departing’s readiness for this jump-up in class. The 97 Beyer he earned last out stacks up well in here, and this well-bred colt may have another forward move in him. I’ll bet on #7-Departing to win and place at odds of 5-1 or better, and box him in exactas with #3-Revolutionary.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!    


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