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Speed Kills in American, Louisville Handicaps

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 5/24/2013 5:25:16 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Obviously, Harrods Creek, Atigun, Ioya Bigtime, Dark Cove, Heathcote
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The American Handicap, The Louisville Handicap
Where: Hollywood Park, Churchill Downs
When: Saturday, May 25th

They say speed kills. The super-speedy 5YO gelding Obviously should do the killing in The American Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday. However, in The Louisville Handicap at Churchill Downs a half-hour later, a handful of confirmed front-runners are likely to kill each other off, setting the stage for stalker Dark Cove. Let’s take a closer look at these turf events below.

In the American Handicap, #1-Lucayan (8-1) is the field’s only Grade/Group 1 winner, having captured the French 2000 Guineas last year at Longchamp. This will be his stateside debut for trainer Neil Drysdale off more than a seven-month break. He’ll also be getting Lasix for the first time…that’s a lot of question marks. #5-Racing Aptitude (8-1) has speed, but you’ll note that when he faced Obviously two back, he assumed the role of stalker, and never threatened. #2-Obviously (4-5) capped off a very nice 2012 campaign with a strong third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile behind Horse of the Year Wise Dan and future Hall of Famer Animal Kingdom. With a nice tuneup in the Grade 3 San Simeon under his belt, Obviously should grab the lead right away and never look back. I’ll bet on Obviously to win at odds of 3-5 or better.

There’s a ton of early speed in The Louisville Handicap, with #2-Harrods Creek (4-1), #4-Atigun (7-2), #5-Ioya Bigtime (3-1) and #9-Heathcote (15-1) all capable of duking it out on the front end. You might question Harrods Creek being included in that group, but note that in his last two comebackers (3-24-12 and 9-10-11), he went right to the front. Even #3-Mack’s Blackhawk (15-1) won a 1 ½-mile turf event at Remington Park in front-running fashion. #6-Dark Cove (5-2) is in career form, having just annexed the 1 ½-mile Grade 2 Elkhorn on the Keeneland sod with a 3-wide, stalking trip. He should get an even better setup on Saturday, so a repeat performance should seems likely. Rosie Napravnik returns in the irons after a 3-race hiatus, and there’s arguably little drop-off from the highly-talented Joel Rosario. She has had good success with Mike Maker-trained horses, with the trainer/jockey combo clicking at a 26% win rate in 2012-13, with a $2.00 ROI. This may be the race that puts them in the black. I’ll bet on #6-Dark Cove to win at odds of 2-1 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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