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Pete???s Picks: Social Inclusion in Wood Memorial, California Chrome in Santa Anita Derby

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/4/2014 9:42:03 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds ??? Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Social Inclusion, Hoppertunity, California Chrome, Candy Boy

What: Horse Racing Betting Tips ??? The Wood Memorial, The Santa Anita Derby

Where: Aqueduct, Santa Anita

When: Saturday, April 5th

Plenty of Kentucky Derby questions will be answered this Saturday after the 90th Running of The Wood Memorial and the 77th Running of The Santa Anita Derby. Will Samraat enter the Run for the Roses undefeated? Will the third time be the charm for Uncle Sigh to turn the tables on his nemesis Samraat? Is Social Inclusion a freak???or just another nice three-year-old? Is California Chrome ever going to bounce? Will the hard-charging Candy Boy finish at least second in The Santa Anita Derby, thus ensuring himself enough points to qualify for The Kentucky Derby? Let???s take a closer look at the major players in these storied events.

#11-Social Inclusion (2-1) has rocketed to prominence on the thoroughbred horse racing scene in a matter of a few short weeks???and he has yet to win a stakes! What he has done, however, is win his two starts by a combined 17 ?? lengths, defeat the highly-regarded (and recently sidelined) Honor Code in a canter, set the Gulfstream Park track record for 1 1/16th miles (1:40 4/5) in his first two-turn try, and earn a whopping Beyer Speed Figure of 111 in the process! His connections are highly competent, but not well known on the national scene, making this a potential feel-good story for anyone who likes cheering for the little guy. Include me in that group, and from everything I???ve read about this horse, he???s special. Plus, he seems to enjoy his new surroundings, likes the Aqueduct main track, and continues to train with gusto! With the scratch of #1-Kid Cruz, he???ll move in one spot, although the outside post might not be a big deal for him. He???s quick, and should grab a good spot on or near the lead without losing much ground on the first turn.#6-Kristo (6-1) could be the one to gun for the front, so Social Inclusion could end up pressing or stalking. #8-Samraat (7-2) and #10-Uncle Sigh (5-1) resume their rivalry, and I???m guessing they???ll both settle in behind the front-runners. #2-Wicked Strong (15-1) is looking like the ???wise guy??? horse, based on his sharp third in the Grade 2 Remsen last fall, but I???m not convinced he???s fast enough to mount a serious challenge. I???ll bet on #11-Social Inclusion to win at odds of 9-5 or better. Many would argue that he offers no value???but if he???s as good as I believe, we???ll look back at a payoff of $5.60 or higher and say it was a bargain .

#5-California Chrome (6-5) has done nothing in his training leading up to The Santa Anita Derby to indicate that he???s going to bounce. In fact, he just seems to be getting better! If that???s the case, they???re all running for second money on Saturday. #3-Hoppertunity is a nice horse, and I get the feeling that for him, Saturday is just a stepping stone to The Kentucky Derby???he???s already earned more than enough points to qualify. That???s not the case with #6-Candy Boy (9-5), who needs a big effort to make it to the Run for the Roses. I feel that he will deliver, but may not be good enough to catch California Chrome???at least not this time around. I???ll bet on #5-California Chrome to win at odds of 4-5 or better, and a straight 5-6 exacta, California Chrome over Candy Boy.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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