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Pete’s Picks: Hyper in The Red Smith, Nellie Cashman in The Mrs. Revere

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 11/15/2013 4:08:31 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Imagining, Tannery, Hyper, Emotional Kitten, I’m Already Sexy, Nellie Cashman, Tapicat
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Red Smith Handicap, The Mrs. Revere
Where: Aqueduct, Churchill Downs 
When: Saturday, November 16th

We’ll take a look at stakes action on the grass this weekend, with the Grade 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct for older horses and the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs for three-year-old fillies highlighting their respective cards. Let’s examine the prospects of the major contenders in each event below.

In the Red Smith, there should be an honest pace with the likes of #2-Imagining (7-2), #4-Slip and Drive (30-1), #10-Mission Approved (30-1) and #13-Quick Casablanca (15-1) all capable of getting involved early. The Shug McGaughey-trained Imagining is the most highly-regarded of the front runners. By Giant’s Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare, the classy Phipps homebred is improving with maturity, and turned in a bullet move last Sunday in preparation for the Red Smith. He may be tough to run down. The 4YO filly #6-Tannery (5-1) has banked more than $750K and tackles the boys again after defeating members of her own sex in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor last out at Woodbine. She’ll be flying late. #11-Hyper (5-2) should be able to establish a comfortable position in mid-pack, and will likely get the jump on the filly. He always fires, and is reunited with jockey Javier Castellano, who rode him to victory in the John’s Call at Saratoga in July and the Grade 2 Bowling Green Handicap at Belmont Park in September. Trainer Chad Brown’s horses tend to hold their form…at the age of six, Hyper just keeps getting better. I’ll bet on #11-Hyper to win at odds of 8-5 or better, and key him top and bottom in exactas with #2-Imagining and #6-Tannery.

#13-Tapicat (7-2) is a rather lukewarm favorite in the 14-horse Mrs. Revere. She’s marooned near the outside, and you’ll note she’s burned some dough in three starts since returning from a 5 ½-month break. I’ll be looking elsewhere for value. #1-Emotional Kitten (4-1) is another in a seemingly endless string of Ramsey “Kittens”(note longshot #2-Quality Kitten right next door). Perhaps the Ward trainee will appreciate the slight class relief after contesting three straight Grade 1’s. She should be heard from late. #4-I’m Already Sexy (4-1) should on-or-near the lead, and may forget to stop. I’m leaning toward #8-Nellie Cashman (9-2). Her form has steadily improved since the spring, and she’s finished first or second in her last six starts, including a nose win in the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga two back, only to be DQ’d and placed third after drifting out late. Her low-profile Mid-Atlantic connections assure a square price. I’ll bet on #8-Nellie Cashman to win and place at odds of 7-2 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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