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Pete’s Picks: Ciao Bella Luna in The Raven Run at Keeneland

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 10/18/2013 5:34:52 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Sittin At the Bar, Silsita, Lighthouse Bay, Ciao Bella Luna, My Option
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Raven Run
Where: Keeneland 
When: Saturday, October 19th

With 16 entered, including two also eligibles, Saturday’s Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland figures to be mad scramble. The nice thing is, if you can pick the winner, you’re likely to be paid handsomely. Let’s take a closer look at the main players in Raven Run below.

#2-Sittin At the Bar (8-1) is a hard-hitting Louisiana-bred filly on a 4-race winning streak. She has Beyered in the high 80’s/low 90’s sprinting, and owns the field’s top bankroll of just over $578K. There are drawbacks however…she has failed to hit the board in a pair of graded events outside of the Bayou State, and this will be her first start on polytrack.

#4-Silsita (7-2), a Todd Pletcher trainee, won her only start on polytrack last spring when capturing the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park by a nose. Mike Smith will be aboard for the first time, and you’ll note that Pletcher runners have won 4-of-7 at the meet thus far. She’ll likely be an underlay. Note that all three of her wins have come by a nose…so be prepared to sweat it out to the last jump with her.

#5-Lighthouse Bay (4-1) won the Grade 1 Prioress two back, earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the process, so you know this filly has quality. Like Sittin At the Bar, however, she’ll be making her polytrack debut. She is also top-weighted at 122 pounds.

#9-Ciao Bella Luna (4-1) hasn’t raced since late June, and might offer value for that reason. She won the Grade 2 Beaumont here in mid-April, and you’ll note that her record sprinting on artificial surfaces is an excellent 5-3-2-0. She has turned in a steady string of excellent works leading up to this, culminating with a bullet move on the main oval just five days ago. I like her chances at what should a square price.

#10-My Option (8-1) is shaping up to be the “wise guy” horse, based on her excellent polytrack form (3-1-2-0), high polytrack Beyers (97,92), and slightly-darkened recent form on the Arlington lawn, in which she earned a pair of non-threatening minor awards. The problem is, she’ll be nowhere close to her morning-line odds of 8-1. If you can pull the trigger at 3-1 or thereabouts, knock yourself out. She’s not my option.

I’ll bet on #9-Ciao Bella Luna to win and place at odds of 9-2 or better, and key her top and bottom in exactas with the other horses mentioned above. The exacta tickets would look like this: 9/2,4,5,10 and 2,4,5,10/9.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!   

 


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