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Online Horse Racing Betting - Anatomy of a Shocker

Posted by Tony Bryant on 9/10/2012 6:14:07 PM

Periodically, online horse betting handicappers should try to hone their art and skill by examining exactly how a longshot became a long shot and if there were some subtle but not quite unhidden clues that could have been discovered.

Enter the 7th race at Monmouth Park on August 24.

This mile and a sixteenth turf race was for three years old or four years old and upward which have never won two races or which have won three races.

Seven went to the post and the fans landed on Alke John as the 2-1 chalk in the contentious race. There were also two 5-2 shots and a 4-1 shot but the top prize went to Sam Hillic, who was 8-1 on the morning line but went double that price at post time getting up by a head at 16-1.

The gelding had two sprint preps under his belt and was caught wide in his prior race when starting from post 10. He had only won two turf sprints, so this was a new game for him, but his kin Stormy Success had won at this very distance, so the blood was there.

On top of that Sam was coming out of some live races. In his first start since January, he finished 6th but three exited that race to win next time out.

And in his race right before August 24, the place horse had taken a $16,000 optional, the 6th finisher won a $12,500 claimer and the 4th finisher was third in a $20,000 claimer.

Lastly, Sam is trained by Mark Hennig, who learned his trade under Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas and he hired C. P. DeCarlo to ride, who has now won with 4 of his first 11 starters at Monmouth this meeting when getting a leg up from Hennig.

The angles now scream off the online betting sites canvas. Sam was making his third start off a layoff, figured to have his sea legs under him, was stabled at Monmouth all summer and had every right to move forward.

He did and we can all live and learn.

Next, take a look at a race out West at Del Mar. It’s was the nightcap also on August 24. The 5 and a half-furlong fray was carded for juvenile California-bred fillies in a $40,000 claimer.

A full field of 10 went into the starting gate but the first 4 choices all were out of the money. When the smoke had cleared, Economy of Motion, who opened at 12-1 on the morning line, went to the lead, never looked back winning by over 6 lengths and paid $33 flat.

This miss was overmatched at the wrong distance in her first race at Del Mar but had already proven she belongs at this level. She was in the money in three of her other efforts and fried in a duel in the race she dropped out of early.

One of the reasons she was overlooked is because her trainer, Emily Mode, was saddling her very first winner. Mode, a former rider, has a very astute father-in-law in Darrell Vienna, who is not only a lawyer, but one of the sharpest trainers spotting horses in California.

Furthermore, although Motion was the first to race out of an unraced mare, if one went a little deeper into the pedigree class would emerge. First off, know that Motion was bred by Herman Sarkowsky, who was co-founder of both the Portland Trailblazers and the Seattle Seahawks, so he was not used to dealing with junk.

The dam’s dam is kin to a Grade 3 winner and over $300,000 earner Tajaaweed and the third dam dropped triple Grade 3 winner, sire and near $500,000 earner Mr. Greeley.

So, just like everything else in life, hard work and perseverance can pay off, especially with online sports betting.


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