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Obviously, Jimmy Creed Look Tough at Hollywood Park

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 6/28/2013 5:27:32 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Jeranimo, Lucayan, Obviously, Jimmy Creed, Rail Trip, Comma to the Top, Centralinteligence
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Shoemaker Mile, The Triple Bend Handicap
Where: Hollywood Park
When: Saturday, June 29th

With Horse of the Year Wise Dan and top West Coast miler Obviously avoiding one another for the time being, each looks like a standout in their respective races on Saturday. Wise Dan will tote top weight of 128 pounds in the Grade 2 Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs Saturday evening, and is hard to go against. We’ll focus our attention on the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Hollywood Park, where 4-5 morning-line favorite Obviously will tackle four opponents, all carrying 124 pounds. Later in the Hollywood card, nine of the West Coast’s top sprinters will line up to contest the 62nd Running of the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap, headed by Jimmy Creed at odds of 5-2. Let’s take a closer look at these races below.

#5-Obviously (4-5) is the controlling speed in The Shoemaker Mile. Although #3-Wilkinson (8-1) was on the lead most of the way when defeating allowance foes going 1 1/16th miles on the Hollywood Park lawn last out, you’ll notice that the fractions were very slow in comparison to the type of early heat Obviously brings to the table. The other three runners come from out of it, so Obviously will be extremely difficult to run down in this spot. If #4-Lucayan (3-1) couldn’t threaten Obviously last out in The American Handicap when the pace was a swift :46 flat, how can he mount a challenge if Obviously is loping along in :47? I’ll bet on #5-Obviously to win at odds of 1-2 or better. Hey…what’s wrong with a 50% return on your investment in this highly favorable situation?

The Triple Bend Handicap appears to be a much more competitive affair. #4-Comma to the Top (3-1) has won two straight (and 3-of-4) on the front end, and he loves the Hollywood Park main oval (9-5-1-0…$582K+ in earnings and career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 109). #7-Centralinteligence (5-1) is rounding into top form. He was second behind Comma to the Top last out, and could be ready for another move forward in the third start of his form cycle. #9-Camp Victory (5-1) is capable of a huge performance on his best day…note he won this race last year (earning a Beyer of 112) after prepping in the Los Angeles Handicap…hmmm. Still, I will bow at the altar of Dick Mandella, and pick #2-Jimmy Creed (5-2) to win his second Grade 1 event. Jimmy Creed broke his maiden at Hollywood Park after running second here in his career debut, so you know he handles the surface. He continues to train strongly, earning bullets in three of his last four works. This well-bred (and costly…$900K) 4YO has always been highly-regarded, and is now realizing his potential. He’s 1-for-1 at the distance (the Grade 1 Malibu), and should work out a nice trip with his stalk-and-pounce style. Gary Stevens takes over for Garrett Gomez, so you’re not losing much (if anything) with the rider switch. I’ll bet on #2-Jimmy Creed to win at odds of 9-5 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!   


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