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Incognito Unveiled (Part 1)

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 6/6/2013 5:36:43 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Freedom Child, Overanalyze, Orb, Incognito, Oxbow, Revolutionary, Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Unlimited Budget, Golden Soul
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park
When: Saturday, June 8th

A field of 14 will be venturing into uncharted territory on Saturday when they line up for the 145th Running of The Belmont Stakes. None have attempted the demanding 1 ½-mile journey, and most never will again. In what is known as a jockey’s race, local riders familiar with the massive Belmont Park main oval may have an edge. So too, may horses with stout bloodlines. Let’s take a closer look at the Belmont Stakes field below.

#1-Frac Daddy (30-1): He throws in a big effort every so often, and has been training sharply. He could give the horse to his immediate right a run for his money in the early going…but I doubt he’ll be around at the end.

#2-Freedom Child (8-1)
: His connections are doing a rain dance, but may miss it by a day (Friday looks rainy, but Saturday offers only a slight chance of rain). This guy freaked in The Peter Pan on a sloppy/sealed track, but this is a much tougher bunch and three-eighths of a mile farther. Plus, he’s likely to be challenged for the early lead by Frac Daddy and possibly others. Time for a regression? Looking elsewhere…

#3-Overanalyze (12-1)
: This guy has a distinct win…lose…win…lose…etc. pattern. So after a disappointing Kentucky Derby, maybe he’s due for another rebound. The Todd Pletcher runner (one of five in here) owns a graded stakes win over the track and is bred to handle the distance. Should be in the mix.

#4-Giant Finish (30-1)
: Jockey Edgar Prado has won the Belmont Stakes twice, so his arrival can’t hurt. Giant Finish edged Overanalyze by a neck in the KY Derby, so he’s not hopeless. I won’t be using him, however.

#5-Orb (3-1)
: The morning line favorite in all three Triple Crown races didn’t make much of an impact in The Preakness. However, the slow pace and his inside path (the worst part of the track) didn’t help his cause. He seems to have rebounded physically, but the Triple Crown grind could be taking enough of a toll to keep him out of the Winner’s Circle.

#6-Incognito (20-1)
: The more I look at this horse, the more I love his chances. He’s bred as well as any horse in the field for this distance. He’s a tough customer too…just watch a replay of his entry-level allowance score against older horses two back to see just how tough and determined he is. His Peter Pan loss is extremely deceptive. He took himself out of the race (according to former rider Mike Luzzi) due to kickback…then came running like a freight train through the stretch to miss third by a neck. Then he galloped out past the winner like he was just getting warmed up. With an extra three-eighths of a mile, he should be a huge factor late. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. is interesting too…the jockey/trainer combo of Ortiz/McLaughlin is clicking for 31% winners (8-of-26) at Belmont Park with an ROI of a whopping $3.98! I’ll bet on #6-Incognito across the board (Win, Place, Show) and key him in all slots in exactas, tri’s and super’s with a slew of other runners.

Part 2 to follow shortly.

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