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Horse Racing Betting - Talking Babies

Posted by Brian Mulligan on 12/3/2012 5:27:20 PM

Since maiden races make up a bulk of the daily cards around the country daily, online sports betting site enthusiasts have to delve into the crystal ball for horses that have yet to win.

This is not an easy thing to do but there are some guidelines for wagering on unproven runners.

First off, think of it this way. If a horse has shown just an inkling of talent in the a.m., would his connections offer him for sale the first time out of the block?

Probably not. Hence, to win at first asking for a maiden claiming may intrinsically be a bit tougher than for runners in Maiden Special Weight land.

Even horses that are well-bred, runners in MSW fields, are not always asked for the 100% primed effort to kick it off. Charlie Whittingham, one of the greatest trainers ever to saddle a horse, almost never had live runners in the debut.

If a Whittingham horse did win first time out, it was either by accident, he got away from the rider, usually Bill Shoemaker, or he was just talented enough to win on his own.

Just because a horse trains fast, doesn’t always mean he will run fast. Some trainers just let their horses roll in the mornings and a best of the morning work may not mean all that much.

Conversely, when a horse betting sites player sees a runner train fast from a barn that is very conservative in the mornings, then the light should go on quickly.

Bob Hess Jr. and Bill Spawr come to mind out West. Neither trainer asked for speed much in the a.m. so if runners from these barns train quick, that could be a tell tale sign.

Bob Baffert and guys like Neil French always put their runners through the ringer in the mornings and expect fast works from these outfits.

One of the biggest drops in the sport, if not the absolute biggest, is when a horse goes from MSW company to a maiden claimer. It’s kind of like one day shopping at Walmart and then the next hour you are at Saks Fifth Avenue with a free $1,000 shopping spree planned.

It’s always kind of a guessing game when a horse takes this kind of drop. Is it because the runner just has no talent and the connections are trying to get rid of the horse or is this where he has belonged all the time?

One way to clear up that issue is by using a bit of common sense. Say a runner cost upwards of $200,000 and he is entered in a MSW first out and runs middle of the pack or worse.

The next time he entered in a $25,000 maiden claiming and the red flag is immediately raised high and wide from everybody to see.

This just seems like a very quick give up to toss in the towel on a runner and take a $175,000 loss on paper after only one start.

Another reason why you have to tread lightly sometimes with maidens is because they are usually young, developing rapidly and subject to improvement almost over night.

The main issue for online sports betting players is knowing who you are dealing with both with first timers and with horses that take the MSW to maiden claiming tango.

When a smallish barn drops a horse from a MSW to a maiden claiming it’s time to take note. The trainer doesn’t have a lot of bullets in the gun in the first place so he has to make every shot count.

Take in this instance Sean McCarthy, who does some TV work and also trains for Harris Farms. In the last 5 years he has sent out 10 runners going MSW to maiden claiming and only two have won.

But 4 ran second and two were beaten just a neck and a head. This guy sends out live droppers but it’s up to the betting sites online player to do the due diligence and find guys on their circuit that operate the same way.


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