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PRETZEL LOGIC

Posted by on 9/25/2013 8:01:56 PM

The album “Pretzel Logic” was the third studio piece by the group Steely Dan and sometimes online sports betting site players have to take a step back and just use their own logic when approaching this intricate sport of horseracing.

Handicapping is a personal, isolated thing. I’ve seen 10 experts in the Press Box at tracks in California all watch a race together and have 10 different opinions of what just happened in front of them.

Successful players don’t necessarily agree on what are the most critical handicapping factors. One player may look to play closers, while another lives and dies with front-runners. Some experts only back horses in good recent form, others search for form reversals of well-beaten runners at big odds. You may be a fan of a certain jockey or trainer and wager on them blindly. Others would counter that the game is called ‘horse racing’ not ‘jockey’ or ‘trainer’ racing.

They say speed kills, but not in racing. Horses with early speed have an advantage. Always. Statistically they win more often than closers. It’s a fact.

Why? Because they have a built-in bias—they’ve already been where others need to go. They have an advantage from the get go out of the gate and are able to save ground throughout the race.

On the other end of the spectrum, pace battles of course favor closers. We saw that in the Kentucky Derby with Orb, who took advantage of a ridiculous pace to win at Churchill. But the other two Triple Crown races favored horses with early speed and they both paid sweetly when the smoke cleared.

Post position is something that is often overlooked completely. And it can be overlooked in some very big races, like the Kentucky Derby.

Logically, try to think of it as just driving on the freeway. Even the most experienced drivers can feel intimidated in tight quarters.

When I was a Teamster and drove trucks in Northern California I never wanted to have that feeling of being boxed in on the freeway and that is also where good post position comes into play.

Try to embrace sprinters with early speed drawn in cozy outside posts with no other speed horses drawn outside of them. From an outside post in sprints, jocks can peek inside and see what competitors are doing.

Who else is going to the lead? How fast they are going to get there? Outsiders then can sit comfortably off whatever early pace develops. Because they are outside, racing without pressure early, well-drawn speed horses are able to save energy for crunch time in the stretch and that’s an advantage.

This type of strategy can change the entire complexion of a race and it can be the difference between cashing a ticket or tearing up the useless thing in your hand. 

Keeping things somewhat simple if a good starting point for anybody that is going to try to make money wagering on horses. ‘

It’s not always about the must sophisticated figures or the lengths a runner may have lost by going wide in his last race.

Winning at this very difficult game can be accomplished by just using some good old-fashioned common sense.

Good luck.

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