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Groupie Doll is Key to Aqueduct Grade 1 Double

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 11/23/2012 5:15:27 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds ??? Groupie Doll, Dance Card, Book Review, My Wandy???s Girl
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips ??? The Cigar Mile Handicap, The Gazelle
Where: Aqueduct
When: Saturday, November 24th

There???s a natural wagering bias against females when it comes to competing against males at the highest levels of thoroughbred horse racing in North America. That???s why favored Groupie Doll offers value in Saturday???s Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct. Hook her up with the winner of the Gazelle and the Cigar Mile/Gazelle Double should pay handsomely.

#7-Groupie Doll (8-5) came out of her Breeders??? Cup Filly and Mare Sprint romp so well that her connections decided to tackle males in the prestigious Cigar Mile Handicap before shelving her for the season. While she is favored on the morning line at 8-5, her true chances of winning should make her more like 3-5. Her competition is comprised of what I would call in-and-outers???very good on their best day, but also very inconsistent. The main threats come from: #1-Stay Thirsty (7-2), winner of the Grade 1 Travers in 2011 and a game second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last out; #4-Jersey Town (4-1), defending champ and winner of the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap two back; #5-Hymn Book (6-1), winner by a nose of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap in February; and #6-Coil (8-1), a two-time Grade 1 winner, albeit with low Beyer Speed Figures (102 and 96). Groupie Doll has won five straight, three of which were Grade 1???s, by margins of three lengths or more, with a top Beyer of 112. She???s drawn outside, gets in light at 118 lbs., and should pull away from this bunch in the late going. I???ll bet on Groupie Doll to win at odds of 4-5 or better, and also in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile/Gazelle Double (see below).

In the Gazelle, the favorites #2-Dance Card (9-5) and #6-Book Review (2-1) are difficult to separate. Both are on winning streaks, their last winning Beyers are within one point of one another, both hail from top barns and both receive the services of their talented regular riders. Both have won non-graded stakes events and neither has raced over the Aqueduct main track. Book Review beat Dance Card back in May, but that was Dance Card???s career debut, so she was spotting her rival valuable experience. I???ll use both of the above in doubles with Groupie Doll, but my main Grade 1 Double play will be with #7-My Wandy???s Girl (3-1). She???s on a nine-race winning streak, including her stateside bow last out over this track vs. older stakes runners. This filly is probably at her best going long, so the stretchout should move her forward. Jockey Dominguez sticks with Dance Card, but you???ll note that the jockey/trainer combo of Velazquez/Hushion is on fire in 2011-12 (18 starts, 39% winners, $4.33 ROI). I???m looking for a Groupie Doll/My Wandy???s Girl Double to pay in the vicinity of $25.00.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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