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Favorites Beatable in Gulfstream, Santa Anita Stakes

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 1/25/2013 4:17:59 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Spring Venture, Kauai Katie, Shanghai Bobby, Itsmyluckyday, Teddy’s Promise, Kindle
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Forward Gal, The Holy Bull, The Santa Monica
Where: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita
When: Saturday, January 26th

Once-beaten Kauai Katie (The Forward Gal), 2YO Champion Colt Shanghai Bobby (The Holy Bull) and hard-hitting Teddy’s Promise (The Santa Monica) all figure to attract strong support at the windows this Saturday, but beware! All of these highly-regarded runners are vulnerable. Here’s why:

In the seven-furlong Forward Gal (Grade 2) at Gulfstream Park, #6-Kauai Katie (4-5) figures to have plenty of company on-or-near the lead, with #2-Fusaichiswonderful (3-1), #3-My Happy Face (4-1) and #5-Pow Wow Wow (15-1) all capable of applying serious pressure. Granted, her top Beyer Speed Figures (101, 100) tower over the competition, but note those numbers came going shorter…she may have distance limitations, as evidenced by her fade in the two-turn Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. I’m intrigued by #4-Spring Venture (8-1), who will be making her dirt debut for trainer Mark Casse, who is having a solid meet. Spring Venture retains regular rider Patrick Husbands, and has trained in sharp fashion over at Palm Meadows leading up to this event. She sold for more than 42 times her sire’s stud fee, so she’s got quality, with a pair of graded wins under her belt. I’m inclined to toss her Breeders’ Cup flop, given the cross-country trip and the absence of Lasix. Her closing style should be flattered in this-speed-laden field. I’ll bet on Spring Venture to win and place at odds of 6-1 or better, and box her in exactas with Kauai Katie.

Shanghai Bobby looks tough in Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull (Grade 3), but remember this race is just a stepping stone to the spring classics, and he’s returning from a nearly three-month layoff. I’ll try to knock off the champ with recent local winner #7-Itsmyluckyday (6-1). He owns the field’s top Beyer (95), and is a stakes winner going two turns. The Eddie Plesa runner could be an overlay in the 5-1 range. I’ll bet on Itsmyluckyday to win and place at odds of 9-2 or better, and box him in exactas with Shanghai Bobby.

In the Santa Monica (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, Grade 1 winner Teddy’s Promise figures to go off in the neighborhood of 5-2, but that strikes me as an underlay. The last three times she cracked 90 on the Beyer scale, she regressed to the low 80’s next time out. I’m guessing it may happen again on Saturday. Lightly-raced #8-Kindle (4-1), on the other hand, has put together Beyers of 94, 100 and 97 in her last three trips postward, albeit on grass. Still, that shows she can perform at a consistently high level.  She’s a stakes winner on dirt at Fairplex, and that came after a long layoff. In fact, she seems like a new animal after that break, so the switch back to dirt may not be an issue. She should be prominent from the opening bell. I’ll bet on Kindle to win at odds of 3-1 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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