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Back To The Future

Posted by on 1/29/2014 8:04:58 PM

Taking a swing at the Kentucky Derby with a Future Book bet is an iffy thing considering all that can and will go wrong in the following weeks and months and that’s why if one is going to dabble, shoot for the moon.

There is no rhyme or reason taking any kind of a number less than 50-1 or so because the prices on Kentucky Derby Day will be attractive no matter what happens before the first Saturday in May.

Here are some current prices to get a gauge on the action.

After some recent race results, some horses have taken some hits. On the strength of his Holy Bull victory Cairo Prince dropped from 20-1 to 12-1. Honor Code is the leader in the clubhouse as he is tabbed at just 10-1.

Topping Bill, trained by last year’s Kentucky Derby winning conditioner Comandante, went from 30-1 to 14-1 off a clever allowance victory.

Shared Belief, who won the Eclipse Award as the top juvenile, had his odds go the other way. He went from 14-1 to 18-1 mainly because he has been inactive and rumors are flying.

The Eclipse winner has been impressive in his short and sweet career but carrying form from the age of 2 to 3 can be hard to do. These horses at this age are like beautiful little kids and they are growing and learning hourly. They all wake up at a different time.

As far as him not working, it has some pundits confused and puzzled. He won the CashCall Futurity going away with a super 106 Beyer on December 14, drilled 8 days later, and worked again on December 28. His last published drill was on January 3 in 1:00 2/5. So we are talking nearly a month before he has been seen. Stay tuned to this channel.

With that in mind, think about some of the dream longshots offered in this year’s future book.

According to the Wynn Race and Sports Book Commissioner, a son of A.P. Indy, opened at 60-1 and is currently 28-1 and he deserves a glance.

After a late second in his debut, this soph graduated at 9 furlongs at Saratoga with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure and then increased that figure to start 2014 beating $75,000 optional claimers with a 91 Beyer.

Mexikoma might be deserving of a future look. Bred to run all day by Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, this runner was educated in his debut on grass, graduated next out by nearly 15 lengths and was far from disgraced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when beaten less than 4 lengths when he was coming hard. He has trained steadily in Florida of late and is available at 25-1.

Tap It Rich is another that is interesting.

He overcame trouble to win his debut going away, was hung out to dry in the BC Juvenile and then lost all chances in his 2013 finale when he walked out of the gate. This Bob Baffert trainee has talent but is a slow learner. Baffert has put him through his motions of late with a quick bullet drill on Jan. 4 in 1:11 handily out of the gate. The price is right too as he is tabbed at 25-1.

If shooting for the rainbow is your thing, here are 100-1 shots that could improve. They are In Trouble, Medal Count and The Admiral.


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