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Early Breeders’ Cup Observations

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 10/26/2012 6:26:42 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Atigun, Ridasiyna, Royal Delta,
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Breeders’ Cup
Where: Santa Anita
When: Friday and Saturday, November 2nd and 3rd

With the Breeders’ Cup a week away, there are precious few horses that look like Pick-6 singles, and as usual, a slew of live longshots. Of course, we’ll have to consider final works, appearance, price, track conditions, post position, scratches, race shape, etc., before making any final decisions. Also, I won’t be commenting at this point on any of the Juvenile races because of the absence of Lasix. I’ll try to sort that out in next week’s articles. Here’s who I like at this point in time, and why:

Friday, November 2nd

Atigun (Marathon): Classy sort has been nibbling at the edges vs. Grade 1 company. He rounded out the superfecta most recently in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and stayed on well to grab show money in the Belmont Stakes. Has some appeal at morning line odds of 5-1.

Ridasiyna (Filly & Mare Turf): True stayer won the first start of her career by 5 lengths going 1 3/8 miles on soft turf. Recent daylight winner of the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera in her first try vs. older fillies & mares, Ridasiyna has sufficient early lick to adapt to the more speed-oriented U.S. racing style. 3-1 morning line price may wind up looking like a steal.

Royal Delta (Ladies’ Classic): In what shapes up to be the Race of the Year, I’m still banking on Royal Delta to get the job done. The defending champ is in career form, and there will be plenty of pace to set up her late charge. In a field brimming with quality, she’s the one to beat.

Saturday, November 3rd

Groupie Doll (Filly & Mare Sprint): Can’t recall another horse where the addition of blinkers made such a difference…they turned this filly into a monster! She’s been blowing away the competition in the stretch, and 7 furlongs seems to suit her best…the deserving 7-5 morning line chalk. Dust and Diamonds is worth a look at 8-1.

Fed Biz (Dirt Mile): Fed Biz look like the “horse for the course”, as well as the distance…and he’s got home-field advantage over several in here. He’s 2-for-2 going a mile at Santa Anita, and has plenty of upside. Don’t sell this Bob Baffert trainee short, especially at morning line odds of 6-1.

Unbridled’s Note (Turf Sprint): First turf try on the downhill course vs. older horses proved to be a winning one. 3YO may have found his niche. He’s well-bred and in very capable hands. Interesting at morning line odds of 4-1.

Point of Entry (Turf): When Shug gets them good, they stay good for a long time. This 4YO Phipps homebred appears ready to handle whatever Europe can throw at him. The choice at morning line odds of 3-1.

Emcee (Sprint): Defending champ Amazombie doesn’t appear to be quite as good as last year. I’ll take Emcee to capture the sprint crown. He’s been highly-regarded from Day 1, and is a square price at 6-1 on the morning line.

Wise Dan (Mile): Note Wise Dan defeated Cityscape easily in the Woodbine Mile, and that runner finished within 1 ¼ lengths of Excelebration two back at Deauville. Wise Dan is ready to turn back the Euro-challenge of Excelebration at the fair price of 2-1 on the morning line.

Game On Dude (Classic): Back in early June, trainer Bob Baffert noted that Game On Dude was training super after his misadventure in Dubai. He went on to win the Californian by more than 7 lengths. “The Dude” is training the same way now, so look out everyone! Mucho Macho Man (10-1) is primed for a top effort, and Pool Play (30-1) looks like a live bomb.

Those are my early Breeders’ Cup thoughts. I’ll have final comments around the middle of next week. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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