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Derby Trial May Yield Preakness Starters

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/27/2012 5:26:51 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds ??? Paynter, Bourbon Courage
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips ??? The Derby Trial
Where: Churchill Downs
When: Saturday, April 28th

While the Derby Trial won’t live up to its name again this year, it could produce a horse or two for the Preakness Stakes three weeks hence. The Bob Baffert-trained Paynter and Fair Grounds shipper Bourbon Courage could turn out to be special. Let’s take a look at the 11-horse field for the Derby Trial and attempt to ferret out a winning play.

#1-Tarpy’s Goal (20-1): Florida-bred broke his maiden locally at first asking, and exits a restricted stakes win at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s done his best running at 7 furlongs, but has yet to attempt longer distances. Note that both times he broke from the rail vs. graded company he finished last. Looking elsewhere.

#2-The Black (15-1): I loved the movie “The Black Stallion”. I’m not so crazy about The Black. He’s in good form and gets Calvin Borel for the first time, but there are concerns. This is his local bow, he’s trying tougher, and there may not be sufficient pace to flatter his closing style. I’d need to see 25-1 or better to consider him underneath in exotics.

#3-Saint of Saints (8-1): Stalker could inherit the lead in this paceless affair and get brave. This is his first try vs. winners, however, and you know some quality animals will be taking shots at him along the way. May have the best chance of four (4) Dale Romans trainees entered.

#4-Nonios (10-1): Rattled off a pair of nice wins at Golden Gate to start his career before settling for a minor award last out vs. older runners. Nice to see Gomez taking the mount???trainer/jockey combo won with their lone local starter in 2011. Dirt surface is a question mark.

#5-Hierro (6-1): They paid $350,000 for this son of Hard Spun, and have a long way to go to recoup their investment. The connections are top shelf, and you’ll note this colt earned his only win locally. Still, he’s been stuck in the mid-80’s on the Beyer scale, and that won’t get it done here.

#6-Quick Wit (12-1): This guy found the graded waters at Gulfstream a bit too deep, although he did manage to earn black type with a distant third in the 5-horse Hutcheson. Top lifetime Beyer Speed Figure of 81 won’t cut it. Pass.

#7-Paynter (2-1): This colt acquitted himself well last out with a 4th-place effort in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, which he lost by less than 4 lengths. He was very aggressively spotted by trainer Bob Baffert, with nothing but a 5 ??-furlong maiden score under his belt. Baffert go-to guy Martin Garcia travels east to retain the mount. Major player.

#8-Seve (30-1): Not sure why Romans put this runner in here. In two tries over the Churchill main track, Seve has managed to finish no better than 7th, with a top Beyer of 61. No thanks.

#9-Stealcase (15-1): This horse has a similar profile to that of #6-Quick Wit???broke his maiden at Gulfstream in his third start, then found graded stakes company a bit beyond his scope in his next two outings. Pass again.

#10-Motor City (15-1): Motor City won the Grade 3 Iroquois here as a juvenile, so you know he likes the track and the one-turn mile. He did no running in the Swale off the bench, but maybe Florida didn’t agree with him. Interestingly, the only race in which he didn’t wear front wraps was the Iroquois. Will he have them on Saturday? The surprise package.

#11-Bourbon Courage (5-2): This horse runs like he’ll appreciate the added distance, but you never know ‘til they try it. That pair off 100+ Beyers jumps off the page. He gets a nice outside post, giving jockey Mena plenty of options. Could be any kind.

I’ll box #7-Paynter, #10-Motor City and #11-Bourbon Courage in the exacta, and hope that longshot Motor City can crack the top two.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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