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Carve a Live Longshot in Rebel

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/15/2013 5:45:55 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Carve, Treasury Bill, Delhomme, Oxbow, Super Ninety Nine, Joyful Victory, Great Hot, More Chocolate
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Rebel, The Santa Margarita
Where: Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita
When: Saturday, March 16th

Speed abounds in the 53rd Running of the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, so perhaps the race will set up for a longshot closer like Carve. Later in the afternoon at Santa Anita, a compact field of six will line up to contest the 76th Running of the Grade 1 Santa Margarita, headed by the classy Joyful Victory, who will be bidding to become racing’s newest millionaire. Let’s take a closer look at these races below.

The major contenders in the Rebel, including #1a-Title Contender (5-1), #4-Delhomme (7-2), #9-Oxbow (4-1) and morning-line favorite #10-Super Ninety Nine (3-2), have all won routes in front-running fashion. While Super Ninety Nine is a deserving chalk based on his local win in the Grade 3 Southwest, his pair of 100+ Beyer Speed Figures, his sharp form and his top connections, there are obstacles to overcome, starting with his outside post. With plenty of speed to the inside of Super Ninety Nine, it will be crucial for jockey Rafael Bejarano to work out a trip…it seems highly unlikely that SNN will coast along on an easy lead like he did last time. Delhomme could pose a serious threat if he’s ready…but that’s a big “if” off a nearly 4-month break. #2-Carve (15-1) is 2-for-2 lifetime…both routes at Oaklawn. His top Beyer (81) isn’t much, but note he beat Title Contender last out when that highly-regarded rival was sent off at $1.10-1….and Carve spotted him 3 pounds in that entry-level allowance tilt! With second-Lasix and another move forward, Carve could come roaring down the stretch to spring the upset. I’ll bet on Carve across the board (Win, Place, Show) at odds of 10-1 or better, and key him top and bottom in exactas as follows: 2/1(Entry),4,6,9,10 and 1(Entry),4,6,9,10/2.

Three of the top contenders in the Santa Margarita, #3-Joyful Victory (9-5), #4-Great Hot (4-1) and #6-More Chocolate (5-2) are coming off two-turn route wins on dirt in which they earned lifetime-best Beyers of 98, 98 and 97 respectively. All three like to run on-or-near the lead. On that basis, there’s not much to separate them. The four-year-old More Chocolate may have the most upside, as that recent victory was her first start on dirt. I’m inclined to back Joyful Victory, however, as that top-class mare is in the best form of her career, and ran well here in September when second to Love and Pride in the Grade 1 Zenyatta. With her renewed zest for winning, I’ll bet she does just that at odds of 3-2 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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