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Caleb’s Posse The Weekend Lock

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/6/2012 5:44:50 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Alpha, Street Life, Gemologist, Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Caleb’s Posse
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Wood Memorial, The Santa Anita Derby, The Carter Handicap
Where: Santa Anita, Aqueduct
When:Saturday, April 7th

Saturday’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby figure to be contentious affairs that will help clarify the Kentucky Derby picture. The Grade 1 Carter, however, should provide us with the lock of the weekend in Caleb’s Posse, a budding superstar. Let’s take a closer look at these prestigious events.

The unbeaten Gemologist (4-for-4) should go favored in the Wood, but can make no mistakes, as he’ll need to finish first or second in order to post sufficient graded earning to make the Kentucky Derby field. There are several in the field that could make this problematic. Alpha is 2-for-2 as a sophomore, draws the cozy rail post with a short run to the first turn, and will be guided by regular NY-based pilot Ramon Dominguez. Casual Trick could outrun his 20-1 morning line odds after having minor throat surgery to correct a breathing problem. My Adonis finished an excellent second last out to 2YO Champ Hansen in The Gotham, beating 11 horses to the wire by a wide margin. Street Life is training super, and will be rolling late. The Lumber Guy has won both his sprint starts by daylight, and could take this field a long way on the front end in his 2-turn debut. I’ll bet on #5-Street Life to win and place at odds of 9-2 or better. He’ll appreciate the extra distance of The Wood.

Creative Cause is the class of the Santa Anita Derby field, but like Union Rags’ Florida Derby last week, this race is not the ultimate objective. His connections are experimenting a bit by racing him without blinkers for the first time in his career. He may find himself a bit farther back than usual, which isn’t necessarily a good thing on this speed-favoring strip. I’ll Have Another has been working long and strong since his surprisingly easy victory in the Robert B. Lewis two months ago, and should be tough right back from a stalking position. The Bob Baffert-trained Paynter is jumping from a maiden debut sprint score to this 2-turn Grade 1 event…a monumental leap! This well-bred, $325K yearling purchase is truly a wild card. I’ll bet on I’ll Have Another to win at odds of 5-2 or better.

The Carter belongs to Caleb’s Posse. The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner has emerged as a real force at distances between 7 furlongs and a (one-turn) mile. That last start at 6 furlongs was a nice tune-up off a 4-month break. He’s ready to roll now with regular pilot Rajiv Maragh back aboard. I’ll bet on Caleb’s Posse to win at odds of 4-5 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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