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Betting Horse Racing - Avoiding Sucker Bets

Posted by Brian Mulligan on 1/9/2013 6:39:37 PM

This game for all involved is hard enough when everything unfolds right for the online sports betting site playing but we all have to stay away from ‘sucker bets’.

One bet players have to be really careful of is when horses drop in class. Going from a Maiden Special Weight to a maiden claimer is a whole other animal and we will discuss that later but know that the public always seems to hammer a claimer that is dropping significantly in class.

Sure, droppers win every day at every track in the country but it can be a slippery slope.

Think about it if you owned the particular horse in question.

If a horse was going good, was seemingly sound and in good condition, why would you drop him?

If the horse were all-together, wouldn’t it be wiser to put that runner where he belongs, try to win a decent purse or two and then move on?

Some players will bet droppers almost blindly and that is a real mistake. Even a horse that takes a monster drop, say from a $50,000 claimer to a $20,000 claimer or even less will be up against it if that runner has zero speed.

That drop will not change his style and will not avoid putting him behind the 8 ball late in the horse betting race with a ton of work to do and the furlongs evaporating.

Granted, some trainers and owners don’t mind dropping horses to win. Midwest-based Frank Calabrese was infamous for claiming a horse, dropping and winning for fun.

In California, Mike Mitchell has been winning off the drop and the claim for decades so it’s imperative to know the players before making across-the-board judgments.

There are no sure things in this game and droppers are definitely in that category.

Another sort of ‘sucker bet’ is wagering on a confirmed turf horse trying dirt. Horses are creatures of habit and turf racing is a little less taxing than the pounding on dirt or the synthetic so a horse going turf to dirt will have to be dead fit to win.

We’ve seen this tried time and time again and in some big races. A star turf runner may not have many turf opportunities coming up but there is a major stakes race that is carded on dirt.

If the race was on turf, this runner would be one of the favorites but on the wrong surface, he will probably take a good deal of action and he could be on the outside looking in when the smoke clears.

Only the very top horses can have it both ways and excel on both turf and dirt.

Take note.

Now, back to the MSW dropper. It took me awhile to catch on when I was a fledgling handicapper but it’s been pounded into my head, the MSW to maiden claiming drop is the biggest drop in the game and must be respected big time.

Since these runners have likely been facing some well-bred runners on the circuit, even if they have shown very little speed and very little form whatsoever, they rate a long look at the windows.

One exception to this kind of a play is when a horse cost a ton of money and you see those kinds in California daily.

If a runner is by a sire that commands a very high stud fee or if the runner cost $200,000 or so and is tried just once in MSW company and then dropped, that raises up the red flag.

Because of the drop, the runner will be bet but this kind of a move often signals that the connections know what the have and they are in a spot to either fish or cut bait. And in these kinds of deals, they are trying to cut bait and get a little back on the cost of the horse.

Also, if a horse is put in a situation where everything looks to be in his favor on a MSW to maiden claiming drop and he runs poorly with no apparent excuse, forget about it.

Don’t get hooked into betting him again. If he wins, he wins but don’t chase a horse that had every chance to shine and threw in a betting sites clinker.

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