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Bet Horse Racing - Overthinking

Posted by Brian Mulligan on 12/4/2012 5:26:38 PM

One of my former employers used to tell me that ‘every time I think, I cost the company money’ and he kind of meant it and online sports betting enthusiasts may be able to embrace this knowledge.

The boss knew that I was one of the best workers on the job but when I tried to make something difficult when an easy task was at hand, things went awry.

It happens in basketball all the time. A guard will get the ball on the start of a break and instead of going to the middle and making the defenders commit, he’ll try to throw the career pass when on a three to one break and the ball will go out of bounds.

When I was setting the line early in my career for the Daily Racing Form, I would sometimes just try to kind of do the same thing and come up with the ‘wise guy’ play.

Being young, I tried to express how smart I was by going against the grain but over the years the learning taught to just make the easy pass, get the lay up and go back down the court to the next defensive possession.

Once this was learned about handicapping and was taken upon with an attitude of play good defense and the offense will come, things started to get easier, more productive and successful.

This can go a long way in picking betting sites winners. It’s not always about seeing through the smoke and the mirrors of form but looking at what is directly in front of a handicapper.

A tried and true way to sometimes get a price horse is betting a beaten favorite next out if he is 8-1 or more. Often times horseplayers have short memories and there may have been some hidden factors why a horse just did not show his best stuff.

On the other hand, especially at smaller venues, don’t go overboard on a runner that got home at long odds and then comes back at a short price. Cheaper horses at smaller tracks retain their form for much shorter periods and that is why this play can be unreliable.

Remember, good and bad things came come in threes. When a runner that has been away for instance, has a sprint off an extended layoff, and then has another tougher sprint assignment and fails, know that his best may be just around the corner. He should have a decent foundation and could get away on the tote board after two distinct losses.

Getting back to basics is basically, a very wise decision. When I was setting the morning line for the Racing Form at over 17 tracks a day at times, the first thing I would do would eliminate runners that figure to get no action on the tote.

The next thing was to try to figure out the pace and how the race was going to unfold. Once a pace scenario was thought about, the race structure and the possible outcome of the race came much more clearer into view.

After that first assessment, look at how many horses want the lead, how many will be midpack early and how many will come from the clouds.

This is culling the wheat and the dinner on the table cannot be far away.

Remember, a player does not have to bet every single race. When the skies are cloudy or the track is wet or the turf course yielding, that can be just another way to lose a race. Stick to situations where the unknowns are fewer and far between.

Lastly, don’t get tempted into playing a horse because he gets a favorable weight break. These animals are 1,000 or 1,200 pounds, so a few ounces will not be the end all as far as winning.

Common sense can go a long way in this great horse betting sport.


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