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Historic Numbers

Posted by on 6/3/2014 10:20:27 PM

The essayist T.S. Eliot once said ‘the historical sense involves a perception, not only of the pastness of the past, but of its presence’ and online sports betting site players can look to Belmont Stakes history to glean insight about Saturday’s race.

California Chrome obviously has a huge challenge ahead of him on June 7 trying to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 but he will also be trying to become the first Kentucky Derby winner to win the Belmont Stakes in the last 2 decades.

Thunder Gulch was the last to do the Derby/Belmont tango in 1995.

And only one Preakness winner won the Belmont in the last 10 years and that was agile Afleet Alex in 2005. In those 10 years 3 did run second in the Belmont and they were Oxbow, Curlin and Smarty Jones.

Being a new shooter in the Belmont Stakes has been a good thing of late. Since 2000, 12 of the 14 Belmont Stakes winners did not race in the Preakness.

And in the last 14 years, 7 horses ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and then won the Belmont.

In the last 35 years, since 1978, 14 newcomers to the Triple Crown Trail won the Belmont. A total of 11 Belmont Stakes winners were veterans of both the Derby and Preakness.

Exacta form in the Derby also has not held up in the third jewel of the Triple Crown. The Derby exacta players have not been repeated in the Belmont since Affirmed and Alydar finished one-two.

Chalk eaters have thrived in the Belmont throughout history. Historically across the board, the post time favorite wins about a third of the time but in the previous 145 editions of the Belmont, the favorite has won 42% of the time.

California Chrome will be favored in this year’s Belmont but if he goes odds-on, he’ll be bucking a trend. The last 7 odds-on Belmont favorites, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Spectacular Bid, all lost.

California Chrome has not scared anybody away as a full field is in prospect for the Belmont but no horse has ever won the Triple Crown when facing more than 7 rivals in the final jewel.

Only 2 of the 11 prior Triple Crown winners were not odds-on at post time of the Belmont.

The rail is traditionally bad in the Derby for a number of reason but since 1905, the rail in the Belmont Stakes has been golden with 23 winners. Post 3 is next with 15 winners and post 5 is next with 14. Only 5 horses since 1905 have won the Belmont from the 10 post or further out.

As far as running style is concerned, you usually don’t want to come from left field in the Belmont but only two horses, Swale and Da’Tara, won the Belmont wire-to-wire since 1984.

Numbers are numbers, things change in horse racing quicker than one can say ‘we won’ but knowing the angles can never be a bad thing.

Good luck in making the right decisions.

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