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Pete’s Preakness Pick: California Chrome

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 5/15/2014 11:25:33 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Dynamic Impact, California Chrome, Bayern, Kid Cruz, Social Inclusion, Ride On Curlin

What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Preakness

Where: Pimlico

When: Saturday, May 17th

The 139thPreakness goes this Saturday at Pimlico with a field of 10 expected to head postward. Post time is set for 6:18 PM ET. Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome will be heavily favored, so the trick may be to figure out who to use underneath in the exotics. We’ll take a closer look at each of the Preakness starters below.

#1-Dynamic Impact (12-1) : He’s got the look of a horse coming into his own. After taking five tries to break his maiden, he jumped up last out to win the Grade 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne by a nose, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 102 in the process. Jockey Miguel Mena gets the return call for trainer Mark Casse. Dynamic Impact figures to launch his bid from mid-pack, and should appreciate the extra distance of the Preakness. The main drawback may be his post position, as the inside is not the place to be at Pimlico these days. He should make some noise in the final furlong.

#2-General a Rod (15-1) : His connections weren’t happy with his post position, as he’ll be inside all the other speed. He was uncharacteristically far back in The Kentucky Derby, and should be much more prominent early this time around. He’s a tough customer, but I can’t see him threatening the chalk. Maybe with racing luck he’ll contend for a minor award.

#3-California Chrome (3-5) : It will be hard to make much money with him this time, but I’m not betting against him. Based on comments from his connections, he seems to like the Pimlico surface better than Churchill Downs, which spells trouble for the competition. He has gained weight since the Derby, and is doing great. Even though he’s inside most of the speed in Post 3, with a clean break he should get a good stalking trip while working his way to the outside. Going for six straight…the pick again.

#4-Ring Weekend (20-1) : Trainer Graham Motion places his horses where they belong, so you can expect improvement off that recent disappointing start at Calder. Still, it will take a career-best effort to crack the trifecta.

#5-Bayern (10-1) : The blinkers come off, so maybe this Baffert trainee will settle into a stalking position. Still, he has the look of an underlay, based on the trouble he had putting away very ordinary opposition in The Derby Trial. Taking a stand against.

#6-Ria Antonia (30-1) : Filly is working with her fourth trainer in what will be her ninth start. This smells like a hard-to-please, overly-ambitious ownership situation. No thanks.

#7-Kid Cruz (20-1) : If the pace is hot, this guy could come clunking along for a minor award. Granted, he has won while closing into slow fractions, but he hasn’t faced much. The water gets a lot deeper in this spot. Demand value.

#8-Social Inclusion (5-1) : He’s fast and talented. Still, it’s bothersome that this will be his first start in six weeks after missing a few days of training and his final prep race with a foot bruise. This isn’t the best way to head into a confrontation with the likes of California Chrome.

#9-Pablo Del Monte (20-1) : This colt has done his best work on Keeneland’s polytrack. While he’s been training very well and looks great, he’s a question mark on dirt and at this distance. Looking elsewhere.

#10-Ride On Curlin (10-1) : Son of Curlin got a questionable ride in the Derby and was steadied as well. The switch to jockey Rosario should suit him just fine. His local work was solid and you’ll note he’s usually in the mix, hitting the board in 8-of-10 starts. He’s the most likely candidate to fill out exactas and tri’s.

I’ll bet on #3-California Chrome to win and key him over #1-Dynamic Impact and #10-Ride On Curlin in the exacta .

Those are my horse racing betting tips for The Preakness. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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