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Pete’s Picks: Bayern in Derby Trial

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/25/2014 10:05:41 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Bayern, Embellishing Bob, Spot, Myositis Dan

What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Derby Trial

Where: Churchill Downs

When: Saturday, April 26th

It’s rare these days that The Derby Trial, despite its name, has any bearing on The Kentucky Derby a week later. This year may be the exception. If the talented and no doubt heavily-favored Bayern goes in this spot, and wins, he will vault ahead of several other Derby contenders with whom he is tied with 20 qualifying points, based on his Derby Trial earnings. If that were to happen, his connections will have to decide if he’s ready for his third start in 21 days on the first Saturday in May. Let’s take a closer look at The Derby Trial contenders below.

First, please note that trainer Bob Baffert has already decided that #2-Chitu (2-1) will run in The Kentucky Derby, so he’ll be scratched from The Derby Trial. #1-Bayern (2-1) will be sent off at a price much lower than his morning-line odds, due to the defection of his stablemate, Chitu. The blinkers will go back on for the first time since his victorious career debut, and he’ll be ridden by Rosie Napravnik for the first time as well. He’ll break from the rail, which could be a bit tricky in this one-turn mile event, but he had a similar experience in his career bow going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, and got the job done. #6-Embellishing Bob (8-1) and #7-Laddy Boy (20-1) may dispute the early pace, but Bayern has had company on the front end before and left his rivals gasping. His local work was excellent, so it appears the new surface won’t be an issue. I’m looking for Bayern to make short work of this bunch, and if he comes out of it well, perhaps take his place in the Kentucky Derby lineup next Saturday. He’s not yet worthy of comparison to 1982 Champion 3YO and Horse of the Year Conquistadore Cielo, but you’ll recall that trainer Woody Stephens called an audible and ran his colt in The Met Mile vs. older horses, which he won easily, then wheeled him back in six days to romp in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes. Look for #9-Spot (4-1) and #10-Myositis Dan (5-1) to contend for minor awards. I’ll bet on #1-Bayern to win The Derby Trial, and hope that his connections take a shot at the Run for the Roses…wouldn’t that be a story if won both in such unorthodox fashion .

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!


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